Welcome
The three horizons of our future at Tintern Grammar
I once had described to me a perspective on the future that has stayed with me over the course of my life since. The way this was explained to me was that the future can be considered like the view across a mountain range in the Alps. The mountains close to us are like our view of the immediate and near future; we can not only see the shape of each hill or ridgeline, but we can also see the minor ridges and gullies and we can even pick out the texture and shading of the vegetation. This ‘first horizon view’ is like our view of our coming weeks or months and perhaps a year. In our personal or professional lives this perspective is most often shaped by decisions that we take and factors over which we have some or much control.
If we look to the second horizon of the next farthest line of hills and ridges, we have lost sharpness of the edges and the texture and colour variation of the vegetation. But we still have quite a clear outline of shape, and the way that peaks and ridges meet and blend, so still quite a clear overall picture. This ‘second horizon view’ might be likened to our personal or professional 12 month to 3- or 5-year view. This view can be altered in minor or major ways by factors both within and outside our control but is definitely affected by the ways we consciously or inadvertently change our first horizon view over time.
Then we have a ‘third horizon view’ which is the most distant hills and ridges we can still see. The general shape is still discernible, but the edges are blurred, the vegetation has no texture or clear colour variation, and it is not possible to see how one ridgeline runs into another. This is the equivalent of our long-term view – 5 to 10 years into the future. This is a view that can be difficult to reconcile with our first horizon decisions and actions due to the difference in the timespan of the two (although they are very clearly related). But this third horizon is clearly influenced by our first and second horizon decisions and the changes we make there.
So why bring this up now?
Tintern is currently facing and making some decisions and experiencing forces that will shift our first and second horizon views. Our Forward Strategy was generated acknowledging the possibility of these and was set to anticipate possible decisions or changes we may need to make if they came to be. So now that some have come about, Tintern is in the fortunate position that we do not expect them to significantly influence our third horizon (our strategy) because their possibility has been anticipated in the strategy, and mitigation was prepared before they emerged.
Firstly, the School growth that has come to us as an opportunity in 2022 (2 girls’ Year 7 classes -> 3 girls’ Year 7 classes), 2024 (2 boys’ Year 7 classes -> 3 boys’ Year 7 classes) and 2025 (projected 1 Year 5 class of each gender -> 2 Year 5 classes of both genders). Our numbers (pandemic effects aside) have been growing slowly but steadily for the last 8 years (first horizon on a year by year basis), and we knew that the moment to create new classes at Year 7 and Year 5 would come, but we were not going to commit to that until doing so also protected us from not-anticipated, but always possible, external forces over which we had no control, such as government funding or social/financial (e.g. GFC-style) forces (these being very first horizon issues if they appear, but a second or third horizon view needs to be taken before they do).
In our Forward Strategy we wanted to generate more student opportunities over time that would facilitate the development of our four Graduate Profile Attributes (knowledgeable caring thinkers, open-minded inquirers, balanced risk takers, and principled and reflective communicators), a combination of both first and second horizon views. This was going to require a greater number of students to support the establishment cost, so the increases would take place incrementally and progressively (a second horizon view). We also recognised that the benefits of small cohorts where every student is truly known also has as its counterpoint a smaller number of social groups and opportunities, which some of our students find difficult when there are social disputes or friendship tensions (a first horizon issue). To counter this, anticipating a second horizon view of more students at Year 5 and 7 will help address what is a first horizon tension.
Lastly, the Victorian government payroll tax, COVID levy and Mental Health and Wellbeing surcharge recently came to us without any notice as very first horizon forces. For some schools, these are challenges of Mt Everest proportions, given where their current enrolments, enrolment trajectory, and/or their financial performance currently sit. We are fortunate that our second and third horizon views, largely taken to support first and second horizon challenges and opportunities, will enable us to weather these as they are implemented from July 2024 with greater assurance than many schools.
Our two steps of increased classes will take place next year (an additional boys’ Year 7) and in 2025 (another year of additional Year 7 boys and planned additional Year 5 class in both boys and girls). They will coincide with the two years of progressive application of these taxes. Through the class increases, we will attract some increased government funding along with fee income that will enable to us to fund these taxes without having to resort to the reactive and very significant fee increases that I believe will be required at some schools.
I am not wishing to suggest that the Board or Executive knew these were coming, nor that we believe we have some form of crystal ball about the future. However, our Board’s approach to our third horizon (our Forward Strategy and planning) and a very sound approach to managing and planning for first and second horizon opportunities and risks, by both the Executive and the Board, has meant we look ahead to a positive, healthy, and bold future for our students and our community!
Factis non verbis
Brad Fry | Principal
















































































































